Re-discovery of India-Part II: 2012 - A year of “short term“ turbulence or “long term” turnaround?

There have been many queries on my previous blog titled “ Re-discovery of India”. The questions vary from long term implications of this trend to the branch wise distribution of closing ranks. There were specific queries on whether any specific branch was being preferred or not.

I tried to dig more into IIT JEE data from previous years to get these answers. The current analysis is specific to IIT JEE only.

I found that the year 2012 has been the most disruptive year, as far as choices of branches are concerned. It is not clear if this disruption will transform into a turnaround for years to come or will only be a local turbulence for this year.

The following table lists down closing ranks for major branches from IITs for the last four years.

(Closing ranks for a particular branch have been averaged across identified IITs for that year. There could be loss of some micro level local factors but trends, in general remain same)

 Following observations can be deduced from the table:

·         Computer science has gained a lot this year and is clearly racing ahead.

·     Mechanical and EE+ are holding onto the positive trend.

·         Civil and Engg. Physics have been affected marginally. It would be interesting to watch their trend in coming years.

·         There is a dip in demand this year for Metallurgy+, Aerospace, Biotech+ and Naval Architecture.

·         Civil engineering had been moving up slowly but steadily till last year, but this year it has been swayed away by a upswing in the demand of Computer Science. The same has been the case with Chemical and Metallurgy.

What does this mean?

It appears that candidates are turning away from branches which have less employability and have less growth opportunities in India.  They prefer to go for employable branches in BITS, NITs, IIIT and other institutions. This also shows lack of interest by candidates into higher studies in India. The change is very disturbing this year and this widens the gap between the different branches in IIT. I do believe that this trend would be there in other engineering institutions but with a different magnitude. IITs would need to take a note of it, before it is too late.

Are the IITs doing anything wrong?

Not really. IITs are imparting quality education on various engineering disciplines needed for the growth of the country. Government and Industry have not kept pace to provide ample opportunities in India for all round industrial growth. This has resulted in skewed growth heavily dependent on IT sector. The industrial growth in other sectors have been sluggish. The essential ingredients of all-round Industrial growth like good governance, industrial climate, infrastructure, law and order etc. have been lacking in most parts of the country.

A number of students used to take admission in IITs to get brand value for higher education and employment abroad. The actual undergraduate branch did not matter much. Recent trends suggest that number of applicants for student visas abroad have been slowing down from India. This is mostly related to return on investment through foreign study, which has come down due to growth of IT sector in India. But this in turn has affected “Non-IT” branches, that have always been more closely linked with R & D/higher studies abroad. Students now do not prefer these branches in IITs, it appears.

What can the IITs do?

The flexibilities in course choice/change have worked well to lower the entry barrier for admissions. Students would hesitate to lock their choices for discipline of lower preferences, but if institutes offer flexibilities and provide opportunities for wider choice later, it might work well.

IITians  have been the most sought-after creatures by the industries. Industries have been vying for campus interviews and IITs are not required to do much to attract industries. This has not worked well for branches which have lower in-take by Financial and IT companies. Even if there are good “Non –IT sector” MNCs coming to IITs, the students are more keen on lucrative Bank & IT sector jobs due to higher ROI (Return on investment).

Besides having closer industry relationship, IITs should also be more actively involved in entrepreneurship opportunities for their students in Indian industries. Indian industries have been growing mostly on off-shoring of IT jobs, while new product designs/innovations have been low. This area is a strength of IITs and they could lead the industry.

But, why should IIT care about drop in closing ranks?

Very valid point. How does it matter if closing ranks are dropping down? IITs have already supposedly taken care that all its seats are filled, through multiple rounds of counseling and also by announcing a larger list of qualifying candidates (more than double of what it can accommodate). This means that most of its seats should have been occupied and this gives opportunities to lower ranked, but genuinely interested, students to get admission into IITs. Though, it is not established if these measures have helped to reduce number of vacant seats in IITs, which stood at a whopping 8% couple of years back.  But if it has, drop in closing ranks can well be justified.

On the contrary, if it is not the case,  there are couple of points to ponder over

·         Large number of vacant seats are not only criminal waste but it deprives deserving candidates their due. There have been many ways these seats can be filled more judiciously. Please refer  to the blog for more details - http://dsanghi.blogspot.in/2011/06/high-court-directs-jee-to-find-ways-to.html

·         IITs have gained reputation primarily due to the fact that top brains join the institute and this gives IITs a solid edge over others. It is known by quality of its students, though other factors such as faculty, infrastructure, placements etc. cannot be ignored. Therefore, any dilution on this front could have long term impact.

The merging of competitive examinations, without proper analysis, will further complicate it and pose greater challenge for IITs.