As mentioned in my previous blog, number of “new seats allotted” after first round has gone down by 33% this year. This time, I have analysed trends emerging from the first two rounds of IIT JEE 2012 counselling.
What are the main factors which enable change in allotments or new allotments of courses in every round? Firstly, few candidates do not participate in counselling or withdraw after they get admissions to foreign universities. This phenomenon has gained momentum due to rapid globalization and Indians are now able to afford studies abroad at undergraduate level, albeit this constitutes a small number. The other category belongs to those candidates, who do not get the allotment of their choice. They, either have other options available or want to try JEE next year.
These factors result in changes in allotment of courses in each round and few candidates are allotted new seats. It may be very difficult to make a guess if the course allotted to you will get upgraded in next round or not. Similarly, it is equally difficult to predict if you would be the lucky one in the next allotment. Normally, one has to go by the closing ranks at the end of every round and compare with available data from previous years.
I have attempted to arrive at some data points based on the available information to make a more “statistically” accurate guess on one’s chances of getting fresh allotment or upgrade from the current course.
It is important to understand the main factors which impact the preferences given by candidates. Two factors are very obvious- Location of the Institute and Discipline of choice (referred to as branch)
Let me share some of the statistics I derived, when I compared closing ranks at the end of second round.
1. Average drop in closing rank- location wise: This number denotes average drop in closing ranks after second round as compared to first round on each branch offered in that location. It is averaged as -Total drop in closing ranks for all branches in a particular location/number of branches
*Locations, which have fewer courses to offer, have not been covered.
Please refer to Fig 1 below. A close of the table/graph will reveal that Bombay is well ahead of other locations, while Dhanbad is at bottom of table far behind others. Cluster of Delhi, Madras and Kanpur is the next group after Bombay, with a drop of <50 ranks. Based on closing ranks, it is obvious that location preference in very distinct and might play a role in choice of preferred courses.
2. Average drop in closing rank- branch wise: This number denotes average drop in closing ranks after second round as compared to first round for a particular branch across all the locations. This is averaged as- Total drop in closing rank for a particular branch in all locations/number of locations.
*Only major courses covered. ISM-Dhanbad courses are not included.
Please also refer to Fig 2. A closer look will reveal that there is very little distinction in terms of avg. drop in closing ranks for most of the major branches except Biotech./Bio Sc. From the table, it appears that Computer Science leads the pack, while others (except Biotech.) are spread apart within 30 ranks. With this information, it is difficult to draw any inference on role of branch, in subsequent rounds of counselling. However, it is very evident that location preference plays a greater role in filling the choice by candidates, if one goes by the closing ranks.
Hence, it may be safe to say that location preference primarily drives the choice of courses by most candidates, while choice of branch may play a secondary or tertiary role.
Next round may see more drastic changes in closing ranks depending on how candidates react to settling of the row on the format of IIT JEE 2013. Whether they prefer to withdraw to appear next time, or withdraw in favour of other institutes outside JEE or decide to hang on, only time will tell.
This is my interpretation of the publicly available data. This is mere reflection of the facts through data and there is nothing right or wrong. It is not possible to capture human behaviour through tables and graphs but it is still better to make an attempt to understand it rationally.
-SK
(Originally posted on alwaysaheadblog.wordpress.com on 30th June, 2012)
What are the main factors which enable change in allotments or new allotments of courses in every round? Firstly, few candidates do not participate in counselling or withdraw after they get admissions to foreign universities. This phenomenon has gained momentum due to rapid globalization and Indians are now able to afford studies abroad at undergraduate level, albeit this constitutes a small number. The other category belongs to those candidates, who do not get the allotment of their choice. They, either have other options available or want to try JEE next year.
These factors result in changes in allotment of courses in each round and few candidates are allotted new seats. It may be very difficult to make a guess if the course allotted to you will get upgraded in next round or not. Similarly, it is equally difficult to predict if you would be the lucky one in the next allotment. Normally, one has to go by the closing ranks at the end of every round and compare with available data from previous years.
I have attempted to arrive at some data points based on the available information to make a more “statistically” accurate guess on one’s chances of getting fresh allotment or upgrade from the current course.
It is important to understand the main factors which impact the preferences given by candidates. Two factors are very obvious- Location of the Institute and Discipline of choice (referred to as branch)
Let me share some of the statistics I derived, when I compared closing ranks at the end of second round.
1. Average drop in closing rank- location wise: This number denotes average drop in closing ranks after second round as compared to first round on each branch offered in that location. It is averaged as -Total drop in closing ranks for all branches in a particular location/number of branches
| Location | Avg. Number of Closing ranks dropped |
| Bombay | 11 |
| Delhi | 26 |
| Madras (MAS) | 32 |
| Kanpur (KNP) | 47 |
| Guwahati (GUW) | 73 |
| Kharagpur (KGP) | 75 |
| Hyderabad (HYD) | 76 |
| Roorkee | 98 |
| Varanasi | 110 |
| Dhanbad | 248 |
Please refer to Fig 1 below. A close of the table/graph will reveal that Bombay is well ahead of other locations, while Dhanbad is at bottom of table far behind others. Cluster of Delhi, Madras and Kanpur is the next group after Bombay, with a drop of <50 ranks. Based on closing ranks, it is obvious that location preference in very distinct and might play a role in choice of preferred courses.
2. Average drop in closing rank- branch wise: This number denotes average drop in closing ranks after second round as compared to first round for a particular branch across all the locations. This is averaged as- Total drop in closing rank for a particular branch in all locations/number of locations.
| Branch | Avg. Number of Closing ranks dropped |
| Comp Sc/Comp Eng. | 19 |
| CIVIL Engg. | 39 |
| EC/EE/EEE | 40 |
| AERO. | 41 |
| MECH. | 43 |
| CH ENG/CH Sc. | 45 |
| Metallurgy/Mat. Sc. | 54 |
| ENGG PHY | 68 |
| BIOTECH/Bio Sc. | 138 |
*Only major courses covered. ISM-Dhanbad courses are not included.
Please also refer to Fig 2. A closer look will reveal that there is very little distinction in terms of avg. drop in closing ranks for most of the major branches except Biotech./Bio Sc. From the table, it appears that Computer Science leads the pack, while others (except Biotech.) are spread apart within 30 ranks. With this information, it is difficult to draw any inference on role of branch, in subsequent rounds of counselling. However, it is very evident that location preference plays a greater role in filling the choice by candidates, if one goes by the closing ranks.
Hence, it may be safe to say that location preference primarily drives the choice of courses by most candidates, while choice of branch may play a secondary or tertiary role.
Next round may see more drastic changes in closing ranks depending on how candidates react to settling of the row on the format of IIT JEE 2013. Whether they prefer to withdraw to appear next time, or withdraw in favour of other institutes outside JEE or decide to hang on, only time will tell.
This is my interpretation of the publicly available data. This is mere reflection of the facts through data and there is nothing right or wrong. It is not possible to capture human behaviour through tables and graphs but it is still better to make an attempt to understand it rationally.
-SK
(Originally posted on alwaysaheadblog.wordpress.com on 30th June, 2012)
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