A tactical move by NCP

It surprised many when Congress – NCP differences appeared in media few days back. This time, even the media was clueless and was found to be struggling for the feed (masala). The indications appeared when NCP ministers skipped meetings last week. The rumours were doing the rounds that Mr. Pawar is unhappy with the way congress is treating NCP. Some functionaries of NCP got a chance to appear on the TV, but they seem to be as clueless as others.
Mr. Pawar is a shrewd politician. There seems to be more to the story than meets the eye. There are various factors, which would have forced Maratha stalwart and ICC’s chief to take this move.

Anna Assault

It is no secret that Anna and his associates have been targeting Mr. Pawar since long. He had to withdraw from various cabinet committees including that of Lokpal. It has been an embarrassment for NCP to be targeted by Anna team frequently, especially when elections are less than two years away. There is already a list of tainted union ministers published by Anna team including NCP ministers. To pressurize government against tainted ministers (and corruption/Lokpal), there is an agitation planned by Anna and others this week. All this does not work in favour of NCP leader and party, in general.
To add salt to the wound, government has been holding secret parleys with Mr. Anna Hazare. Anna has been vociferous about Maratha leader’s benami properties. The secret parleys were held without the knowledge of Mr. Pawar and it was enough to infuriate NCP.
But, can Mr. Pawar not manage Anna assault more effectively by being part of the government? Not really. By not being part of government, Mr. Pawar would rule himself out as part of any bargain by the government with Anna team and off course, negative publicity.

CBI factor

One would argue as to why NCP is claiming that they are ally of UPA and would continue to remain so, though they are threatening to resign from the government. It is very clear that these are pressure tactics to make sure that government does not sacrifice NCP on corruption. They do not want to be a scapegoat. Though it is important to keep the government under check but without burning the bridges. Government is known to (mis)use CBI to achieve its political objectives. It would not be very difficult to revive/initiate enquiries against “not so clean” NCP leaders. Remember, how did Mayawati’s  wealth escape CBI wrath just before president’s election? Similarly, Lalu has been keeping CBI at an arm’s length by voting by the side of government. NCP will not make the mistake of leaving UPA at this juncture.

Local factors

NCP is a regional party. It can sacrifice national ambitions and that’s why it has been quick to sacrifice Mr. Sangma. But, NCP can not ignore aspirations of regional leaders and its strained relationship with congress CM at Maharashtra is no secret. Some enquiries ordered by CM Mr. Chavan have been a triggering point.

Congress performance

The indications are clear that Congress party and the government have lost confidence of the aam aadmi. The loss in recent state elections, continuous spat with ally like Trinamool Congress, economic mismanagement and lack of inspiring leadership have been haunting not only congress (Mr. Khurshid have been honest enough to admit but this seems to be general feeling inside congress) but its allies as well. Therefore it suits the politics to keep a safe distance with government and take a stand (being outside government) that identifies more with the aam aadmi. However, keeping ties with Congress alive will be helpful if there is a turnaround in the fate of congress and also NCP keeps the tag of being faithful partner. But if Congress popularity keeps dipping, NCP would not mind to severe ties with the party in the election year.
And, NCP may well succeed in the bargain and government may bend backwards. And, if not, Mr. Pawar has done his calculations. It is all win-win situation for NCP to up its ante for political reasons as well as personal ambitions of its leader.